what is the market outlook for property investors and developers in 2020.in each article each expert will share with you their predictions for what the 20/20 property market has installed for you this is a must read and you're going to want to be taking some notes and sitting down with a coffee cup of coffee and reading all this series of articles before we get started remember if you're new to this blog make sure you subscribe and comment for article because we release new content each and every week and everything is dedicated to helping you be more successful in property also smash that like it really helps us out on Blog and also comment down below whether you agree or disagree with what's being said comment and let us know first up in part one of this -part series we have clout er Crowder has been investing in developing properties since 1982 he has lived through many property market cycles he's quite an expert on property market cycles and timing the timing property activity in the market cycle he's a speaker you live you may have heard him speak at many events he's an author as well he's a former journalist with the BBC so listen up to what clowder has to say in terms of his predictions on the market outlook for 2020 enjoy a lot of the things that happened in 2016 there's some kind of referendum about something a little truck okay and as a result sterling kind of adjusted and so now we've seen a situation where for dollar denominated buyers London properties about forty percent cheaper than it was in 2014 so there are bargains to be picked up for those who don't live in the UK so one of the questions I think ask ourselves why has there not been a stampede to buy up all this value property that is in and certainly we haven't seen the kind of volumes that we might expect from a situation like this so there is some degree of uncertainty that has stopped even contrarian investors such as myself from taking the plunge I was at the front of the queue in 2008-2009 buying below market getting twenty thirty percent off my deals because other property cycles kind of a gun and I'd like to invest in a contrarian fashion so I like to come in and I know John isn't a great fan of the sort of property cycle concept but get value investing there so it's a whether numbers stack which which which tends to have more often on a cyclical nature in my view the checkbooks and and so I was going to discounts of the kind that hadn't been seen for an awfully long time just after a paragraph that's agreed to call it that but I haven't been reaching for the checkbook again because but there are reasons which we might go into later as to why I hold back on this occasion because some when you've got a financial no time you kind of know where you are and you know how it's going to pan out there's a wonderful book actually by a guy called John Kenneth Galbraith called the crash of 29 which explains how the 19th I mean every financial crisis has different causes but they tend to some play out in the same way as politicians smooth the waters that they have to come calm everybody down to make sure that there are not too many knee-jerk reactions and repercussions they do this in similar ways they've all been to public's for which interested me in England are private schools and so they've all learned history and they all know how to sort of do this so these things tend to sort of repeat I mean by coincidence I was reading Jacob October it's looking so fabulous although was one of the economists and so in order to work out what was going to happen in two thousand nine ten eleven I just looked at what happened in June now 1931-32 he's sort of described in great detail how it's going to pan out and that really helped me on my solo investment journey at the moment there were obviously mr. booth announcer beginning their observance there are more factors of play now than I've seen in the whole 38 years that I've been investing so I'm holding up a bit not so much because of the outcome brexit because of because of possible changes in Westminster which might lead to an administration so we say that is far less friendly to property investors than we've seen for a couple of generations so as I think and then I think that's perhaps something that has caused overseas investors Jupiter to hold back on London rather than the whole exiting that's just my personal opinion and we'll discuss that again later but but but I've taken my foot off the gas grab it but next year I expect you're going for tops so so that's just me there's also a situation which we find in some in the prime presidential and here we are in the middle of prime probably super prime part of London in the some you don't tend to get many distressed benders in these these kind of markets so so when harpies do take a bit of a tumble we're probably to take a bit longer to sell when the market Corrections in places like this in places like areas where I invested in the other place Oxford and so forth people just pull their properties of the market so so so the market of contracts and they wait for things to correct nonetheless there was superb bargains big happening after that because everybody was in a real teach then as possible to capitalize on that but but we find now that time that the only people who would actually put stuff on a manager people who who are experiencing that the traditional things of bereavement divorce inherited these kinds of crisis opportunities that happen for some property investors and the question is this but I'm just posing these as questions how much my fellow panelists were also probably like 15 ups recently up to 15 major cities around the world and they ranked a London number one on what they call a bubble index with a score crystal 1.9 which is really really high and that they observed that between 1985 and 2009 whenever this particular index exceeded the score of 1 we're way above that now there was a real price correction of on average 30% which will begin within three years and that's with a 95% certainty level we've got the situation now be your average London there's only what maybe thirty thousand pounds a year it's maybe take six months religious to save up that deposit and at the end of it they're going to find able to buy say 1/3 of a property so there are real affordability issues here in the marketplace which over the length of time that I've been investing we haven't really seen you get quite this bad so what happens when something like that occurs when there is a situation like that normally overseas investors pick up the slack but if they're not then you know we might be heading for some kind of major price correction that is a possibility that at this point in time we might these are all possibilities we might be in line for a base rate cut and what would be what what what would that mean to us as investors it would certainly mean that it was less expensive to buy the some super expensive properties but again would there be an appetite and how long would that take them to to feed through into the general to the devil market as such so then there's this this brexit people one thing that hasn't really been discussed about prisons possible exit or not moving at some unspecified future date is the rapture rent checks how will this obligation upon investors to check that the legal rights are there and run that there are tenants to be in the properties however whether effect citizens the European Union had a point where the migration rules will be changing so sensitive this could massively reduce the the potential protect which we which which again might have an impact on investors in terms of many boys and this one thing the wild card climate change which is a movement from Africa is is something that many scientists believe probably majority of scientists believe is on the way and we've denied this for many many years since our sort of changes we are seeing some extreme climate events now we are seeing ice caps melting but on this council and you can go online and you can find maps of the UK whereby you can map what would happen if the sea level rose and how many bits of it would be in Ireland I based my investments are in East Anglia where probably got a quarter inches of years underwater and for example my friend Fiona's a town here of Ely becomes an island surrounded by water so all those were Colette's they have to swim to work in the morning and that's coming so far so that potentially might be an issue moving forward there might be sort of thought that they might be sort of migration all the effects that happen as a result of that and I think you know for those of us we've got young children out if there are their twenties I think during their lifetime we are likely to see seismic unprecedented changes in the way the people if their life said that before so ego has Bashar but we might see a changing coastline depending on future government's willingness to invest in protecting coastlines clearly that leads to some replace the temporary area in London this this kind of thing which if we didn't have it now will be underwater yet so said so it will be a constant battle as climate change and starts to to take effect because this accelerates and once things happen like the permafrost starts to melt releasing all the retailers opal then the whole thing accelerates so it is something that we as investors need to need to do to focus on we've seen corporate landlords taking over the sector this has been as I come around the country talks I put into railway stations and I see lots of new buildings very often closer to railway stations on our land of the previous boom I could certainly the case in my language where we have a 1 billion pound investment which nearly nearly complete corporates have suddenly decided but an 8% year whatever it is ok it's worth worth going all-in on they they're doing deals with educational establishments whereby suddenly all those two major modes are empty and obviously that has a knock-on effect on the young the residential buy-to-let market I was coming about today just crossing called erosion under their asses of students competition you know almost like a whole city there go trackside which impacts the kind of smaller Landers who were running then affected by tax changes and changes in legislation like that so that is another thing that we have to that we have to look at the where it is for example where's the corner shop that they've been on around anymore and they've been taken over by those Tesco's and Saints for as an asset as other brands are available so that's the thing modular housing is another it's another factor something else that something that's on the way prefabs are more property that perhaps it's kind of neighbor than other countries but increasingly it's great to have everything arrived on the back of a lorry and all be erected in a week shops like Town Tesco when they thought about the small ones I they called Tessa Express I believe where they've got their small shops in there increasingly constructed in a factory somewhere else and they're brought in and slitting in a day but they just sort of measure up from units and they're good to go but we're likely to see similar revolutions like that in housing in any way that I things have booked we might be 3d printing houses so I think we're going to see real changes in the way that accommodation is physically put together and as I mentioned earlier I think we're going to see far more eco-friendly homes and it's coming in that matter of necessity so for example gas will be out a bunch of America decades and this company and so so big big big big changes as far as that is concerned yes yes my tech tech and smart houses are going to make a very big difference to the way we live our lives too and that is that this is the decade what this stuff is going to be happening we've just so great about it and kind of science fiction books up until this time but but the technology is there and the whim is there to implement these kinds of things walk driving around in our electric cars now that we've done that push back slightly and serve so these kinds of things are going to happen with all the house prices across the UK continue to rise me when you make investments there was a past performance is no guarantee of future performance and so will this finally be that the decade that that stalls things for a bit I remember the 1990s when we had George Soros the exact investor prophetic gets the power combined with the then Chancellor and was a Nigel Wilson that Joe's death he introduced a restriction on mortgage interest relief for people who couldn't play but he announced this about nine months before before it came into play and the result fundamentally those two things called - the result of those two things was that property man took a real kick so that throughout most of the following the 1990s the market was flat from about 1990 till about 1998 all my investment decisions could have been done on the back of a cigarette packet above the smoke of it and in my case at the back of a postcard and so I had metrics I didn't need to use my customer email spreadsheets I was able to do viewings shaytan's and buy things very very rapidly without too many numbers because I knew the numbers that work for me in my business and they were constant and quite a shock them and when the things started to change and then any portion again manager so adjust to that and remember I get again in Japan they have a long period of stagflation so just because we're in Ireland and just because there's a limited amount of land and building space doesn't mean that things might stall in that kind of way and it's important to remember others I think it's John saying of Apple and some people we met up at the time the UK hasn't always been a nation of property owners as we believe is written today but this is a relatively recent phenomena but even to talk more about that in due course and then our project has been a major influence on us we've seen kind of Airbnb now all that kind of thing but people now talking about the current of air B&B on steroids whether by the expectations of future Richards because of opportunities opened up by online may skyrocket now so that we'll expect every few months to be moving environment and we also work from home now things change people around people may come to expect now being able to move from one fully furnished fully equipped thing to another somewhere else if you enjoyed this article comment the like if you're not a subscriber what are you waiting for subscribe.comment for article as soon as we write will let you know and enjoy these they're all dedicated to helping you be more successful in property happy investing.